Scientists steered the Government away from shutting the UK’s borders because it would have ‘surprisingly little value’ in stopping Covid-19‘s spread, secret advice papers published today revealed.
One of the scientific reports presented to ministers in May to help guide them through the crisis said restricting air travel would have virtually no effect because the damage was already done.
If borders were locked down right at the beginning of the pandemic, however, it could have prevented a full-blown crisis, as was seen in the likes of Australia and New Zealand.
Another study found that giving immunity passports to Covid-19 survivors – a measure touted by Health Secretary Matt Hancock in April – would only be safe if these people were also tested every month for antibodies.
The Government was also told in early May that mandatory mask-wearing could help control the crisis by stopping asymptomatic people spreading the disease.
Some 40 documents were today published by the Government Office for Science, which is headed by Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser.
They are among dozens in a tranche of papers presented to SAGE, the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, over recent months to help guide ministers through the crisis.
And the reports detail all the scientific advice which is being presented to decision-making officials who dictate when and how the country moves out of lockdown.
Files released today revealed scientists told the Government:
- Mandatory face masks could help control the epidemic by stopping asymptomatic people spreading the disease, SAGE was warned in early May;
- Monthly antibody testing should be carried out on anyone given an ‘immunity passport’ because scientists have no idea how long antibodies protect survivors from reinfection;
- SAGE was warned in April that 90 per cent of care homes would suffer outbreaks of Covid if infection rates continued;
- Imperial College London predicts 16,000 people will die each day over the coming winter from Covid-19 – even with ‘good compliance’ with Government measures;
- Whole household isolation – dismissed as a Covid-containing tactic early on in crisis – would have pushed epidemic curve back 1.5months and should be reconsidered;
- Waiting until Easter to shut schools would have risked spike in ICU capacity with another 1,000 critically-ill cases in hospital each week;
- Easing lockdown in April would have led to second wave that was just as ‘extreme and much longer in duration’.
SAGE was warned in early May that mandatory face masks could help control the virus epidemic by stopping asympotmatic people spreading the disease. This graph was included in a scientific report by DELVE, showing how mask-wearing countries fared better during the crisis
The latest batch of SAGE papers, which are being released in a bid to show greater transparency from the Government, come as 173 more deaths have been confirmed.
There have now been a total of 42,461 people who died after testing positive for the coronavirus in the UK, but many more who weren’t tested haven’t yet been counted.
Here, MailOnline takes a look at some of the stand-out papers from today:
UK missed its chance to control the epidemic by shutting its borders
Two separate reports advised the Government not to shut its borders in April and May because the damage was already done in February and March.
One of the studies was a 2006 paper modelling the effect of restricting incoming flights in the event of a highly-infectious flu pandemic.
Researchers from the Health Protection Agency – which ceased operations in 2013 – found ‘restrictions on air travel were likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected’.
One of the studies was a 2006 paper modelling the effect of restricting incoming flights in the event of a highly-infectious flu pandemic. it found that a blanket ban which saw 99.9 per cent of flights grounded at the start of the epidemic would have halted the pandemic significantly
SAGE then handed a separate paper to Government in early May reiterating that there was ‘little scientific justification’ for putting restrictions at the border.
The scientists estimated that fewer than 0.5 per cent of new infections were being imported into the UK in April and May.
It did this by reviewing Home Office data of incoming flights and predicting how many of these passengers were likely to be infectious based on bad epidemics in their home countries were.
SAGE said that current swabbing techniques were too slow, and temperature checks were too unspecific to warrant being set up at airports and borders.
However, the group said that restrictions may need to be put in place in the event global air travel returns to normal and other countries suffer second waves.
It recommended a 14-day quarantine, which is now being implemented by the Home Office, despite huge backlash.
People who get ‘immunity passports’ need to be routinely tested
If immunity passports were issued to allow key workers to return to work, monthly retesting would be critical, scientists said.
Imperial College London researchers presented a paper on Covid-19 immunity to SAGE in April.
The team found no available data about how long antibody responses last after SARS CoV-2 infection, beyond about two weeks after recovery.
Based on literature for other coronaviruses, mild infections can result in low antibody responses that wane just a couple of months after infection, they warned.
For this reason, SAGE was told that Matt Hancock’s idea of so-called immunity passports would need to be accompanied by routine antibody testing.
Such passports, where people carry documented proof they have immunity because of a past infection, were touted as a possible way to ease lockdown in April.
But the idea appears to have been scrapped because scientists cannot pin-point exactly how long antibodies protect survivors for and current antibody tests have so far proved too inaccurate for widespread use.
Face masks DO work and could help prevent asymptomatic spread
A report on May 4 found compulsory mask-wearing could prevent ‘the majority’ of coronavirus infections in the UK.
The analysis by DELVE – the Data Evaluation and Learning for Viral Epidemics group – told said if everyone wore them it could prevent 40 to 80 per cent of tranmission.
The multi-disciplinary group, convened by the Royal Society, said this was based on the fact that between four in 10 and eight in 10 Covid-19 patients show no signs of infection yet remain highly infectious.