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Lukashenko’s tightness right now is largely explained by a couple of bad misjudgments. LEHTIKUvA / AFP
According to the old wisdom, the adversary is usually not to be underestimated. The authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for 26 years, seems to have committed this mistake a couple of times in a short time, with potentially fatal consequences.
Voter pressure, electoral fraud and a lack of international observers are likely to ensure that Lukashenko is elected for the sixth consecutive term in Sunday’s presidential election. However, the election has seen an exceptionally widespread public movement against the Lukashenko regime.
According to researcher Kristiina Silvan, demanding change and grassroots civic movement may continue despite the expected election result.
– But only if Lukashenko does not organize a new wave of repression, which is also possible. Many have said that the climate in Belarus has now somehow changed, but whether that change will last, Silva of the Foreign Policy Institute ponders.
Resistance spread from cities to the countryside
According to Silvan, what is exceptional about the current situation is that the move to the country has been demanded not only by educated city dwellers but also by the traditional supporters of the president, ie the working population and the rural population. The opposition has managed to mobilize support even in small rural villages.
– That’s why it’s such a huge threat to Lukashenko. As before, it is no longer possible to blame ‘rioting’ in Minsk for flat-mouthed IT nerds, Silva describes.
Belarus’s economy has been in trouble for a long time, but Lukashenko’s tightness right now is largely explained by a couple of bad misjudgments. First, he downplayed the danger of a corona epidemic and did not prescribe proper countermeasures against the disease. The virus did not care about this, the disease spread, and people had to turn to each other for, among other things, procuring protective equipment.
According to Silvan, this showed that the promise to take care of everything was not covered. The poor people were left to fend for themselves
The harmless challenger became a threat
Lukashenko’s second miscalculation was political and partly sexist. The three most notable opponents of the opposition were played out in good time from the presidential election, preventing them from running for office. However, Svetlana, the wife of one of them, vloggaja Sergei Tikhanovsky, was allowed to replace her husband.
Lukashenko has previously stated that a woman can never become president in Belarus. At first, it seemed that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya could not withstand the pressure. He pondered the waters in his eyes as to whether or not to run.
“Lukashenko must have thought what kind of threat there could be a housewife in her thirties who was crying in front of the cameras,” Silvan ponders.
However, as the machinery of other ousted candidates settled in support of Tikhanovskaya, self-confidence has increased and campaign events have attracted huge crowds. The administration has also now noted that the threat has increased.
Tihanovskaya herself has emphasized that she is a deputy candidate who only wants to ensure that a real successor is chosen for Lukahenko in free elections as soon as possible.
The elite does not crack – at least noticeably
Experience of authoritarian regimes has shown that the rifting of the elite around the leader is essential to their overthrow. According to Silvan, there are no signs of that in Belarus, at least not in sight.
Lukashenko himself seems to have guessed that the elite is already considering time after him. In a speech to the eye-optics of the country earlier this week, he warned that fraud would be punished. According to Silvan, the elite may have a lot to lose if Lukashenko falls.
– The threshold for taking something behind Lukashenko’s back as long as he is in power is really high, the researcher sums up.
According to Silvan, Lukashenko has acted as an authoritarian leader in that he has not begun to make concessions to the opposition. That’s when there would be a message to the elite about weakness.
In Sunday’s election, the opposition is seeking to challenge information about Lukashenko’s official vote, including through self-made electronic election observation. According to Silvan, this is an application to which a voter can send a picture of their ballot. International election observers will not be seen in the presidential election in Belarus.
Russia tolerates Lukashenko
Belarus’s relationship with its main ally, Russia, is, to put it mildly, complex. Cheap Russian energy has kept the country afloat for a long time, and the neighbors have a treaty with the state union. However, Lukashenko has recently rejected Moscow’s proposals for closer relations.
Eripura culminated in the arrest of a Russian mercenary last month. According to Lukashenko, the men intended to destabilize Belarus. Russia has denied such speeches, according to Lukashenko, Moscow is lying.
Despite the situation that seems like a ceasefire, things may turn out to be favorable for Russia, according to Silvan. Although Lukashenko is behaving badly, he is a better option than some new and unknown ruler – not to mention a popular uprising like Ukraine.
“Russia’s declining support for Lukashenko could be good for Russia, because it is easier to put pressure on a weaker president,” explains Silvan.
If Belarus burns its bridge to both Moscow and the West, only China may remain. It was the only foreign country Lukashenko talked about earlier this week in a positive tone, Silvan says.