STEPHEN GLOVER: We are being softened up for draconian new curbs

Rishi Sunak delivered a formidable speech in the Commons yesterday. The Chancellor’s calm manner and mastery of detail filled me with confidence.

His message was that, although Britain is in an ‘economic emergency’, the Government is prepared to spend lots of money we don’t have in order to get us out of it. Better times lie around the corner.

But do they? Might our sickly economy recover more slowly than Mr Sunak hopes if those scientists who have captured half of Boris Johnson’s brain, and the whole of Matt Hancock’s, prevail?

Today, the Government will unveil its new system of ‘tiers’, which will take effect when the lockdown ends on December 2. There is reason to fear that most of England will be placed under the severe Tier Two or the swingeing Tier Three for weeks, possibly months.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak as he delivered his autumn spending review in the House of Commons Chamber

London could be in Tier Three, which would disable the capital. Parts of the North are certain to be placed in the top tier. And yet new infections across England are plummeting, with just 9,854 recorded on Tuesday, about half the number of a week earlier.

According to Professor Carl Heneghan, an expert in evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, ‘If the trend continues, it will be hard to justify tougher tiered restrictions’ after December 2.

That, though, is what the Government seems intent on doing. Using criteria that are far from transparent, and taking advice from a shadowy body called the Joint Biosecurity Centre, ministers are about to determine our future.

Will the Prime Minister and the Cabinet meekly submit? Or dare they call a halt to this suicidal rush towards damaging new restrictions driven by unaccountable scientists who have no knowledge of business or the economy?

If there were ever a time for Mr Johnson to heed his own Tory instincts rather than the advice of scientists, this is it. My fear is that he is about to bamboozle the British public.

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson as he took part remotely via a video call in the weekly Prime Minister's Questions yesterday

Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson as he took part remotely via a video call in the weekly Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday

Over the past few days he has presented himself in the guise of Santa Claus. It’s a rum state of affairs when being told that we can live fairly normal lives for five days over Christmas, and that up to three households will be allowed to mingle, is seen as a dispensation. My goodness, we’ll even be allowed to hug!

We have got so used to having our freedoms curtailed, and the Government micro-managing the tiniest aspects of our lives, that even a partial suspension of draconian rules is received as a relief.

Are we being softened up? Is Boris, having posed as a genial Father Christmas, about to revert to Scrooge?

We could be sleep-walking into another lockdown not unlike the one from which we are about to emerge, though it will be called something else in the hope that we may be too demob-happy to notice.

For an insight into the rigid minds of some of the scientists telling the Prime Minister what to do, let me present Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of the Sage advisory panel.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock speaking at a Health and Social Care Committee hearing on November 24

Health Secretary Matt Hancock speaking at a Health and Social Care Committee hearing on November 24

On Monday, this misery-guts declared that the relaxation ‘will allow the virus to run out of control consciously for the sake of Christmas and we’ll need further lockdown measures. But those people infected and who die as a result — their lives we will not get back’.

Perhaps what the zealots really dislike is that for the first time in ages people will decide for themselves. Children, parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles — all of them will be able to weigh the risks and rewards, and make up their own minds rather than having them made up for them.

But it won’t be for long. We may have thought that the Government’s scientists — with their exaggeratedly gloomy forecasts and their sometimes misleading graphs — were in retreat, but no. They’re still in charge.

In fact, my bet is that the prospect of a vaccine is making them even more presumptuous. They expect we will put up with a few more months of deprivation and incarceration in the belief that deliverance is at hand.

Britain's Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance leave the Foreign and Commonwealth Office on November 10

Britain’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance leave the Foreign and Commonwealth Office on November 10

Rishi Sunak (pictured) delivered a formidable speech in the Commons yesterday. The Chancellor¿s calm manner and mastery of detail filled me with confidence

Rishi Sunak (pictured) delivered a formidable speech in the Commons yesterday. The Chancellor’s calm manner and mastery of detail filled me with confidence

Maybe we will. But I don’t believe the economy can survive more shocks. Under Tier Three, pubs and restaurants have to close except for takeaways. Under Tier Two, pubs can sell drinks only with ‘substantial’ meals, which is impractical for most of them.

Tens of thousands of businesses and millions of jobs are at stake, even though there is limited evidence that pubs and restaurants provide a happy hunting ground for the virus.

Emma McClarkin of the British Beer and Pub Association says pubs are facing ‘economic devastation’ and questions why they cannot ‘properly open while households can mix in private settings’.

Meanwhile, Tim Martin, boss of JD Wetherspoon, warned on Tuesday that a million jobs could be lost because of the Government’s ‘flawed’ approach. He added: ‘No one in the Government seems to have any experience of running a business.’

He’s absolutely right. Ministers seem to be as oblivious of what makes businesses tick as are Sage scientists. This is shocking in a Conservative Cabinet.

Under Tier Three, pubs and restaurants have to close except for takeaways. Under Tier Two, pubs can sell drinks only with ¿substantial¿ meals, which is impractical for most of them. Pictured, a pub in Skipton in August

Under Tier Three, pubs and restaurants have to close except for takeaways. Under Tier Two, pubs can sell drinks only with ‘substantial’ meals, which is impractical for most of them. Pictured, a pub in Skipton in August

Are we being softened up? Is Boris, having posed as a genial Father Christmas, about to revert to Scrooge? Pictured, Christmas lights on New Bond Street in Mayfair, London, on Tuesday

Are we being softened up? Is Boris, having posed as a genial Father Christmas, about to revert to Scrooge? Pictured, Christmas lights on New Bond Street in Mayfair, London, on Tuesday

Putting London in Tier Three would be particularly idiotic, not least because it generates about 22 per cent of the UK’s GDP. Its Labour Mayor, Sadiq Khan, says it would deliver a ‘hammer blow’ to businesses. ‘Our city’s unique ecosystem of bars, restaurants, clubs and cultural venues would suffer immeasurable losses, and some may not survive.’

And what would be the rationale? The incidence of new infections in London show a seven-day rate of 187 Covid cases per 100,000, compared with 230 cases per 100,000 in England as a whole. Cases in the capital have been falling over the past fortnight, including among the over-60s, who are most at risk from the virus.

Nor are London’s hospitals bursting at the seams with Covid patients, though you never hear ministers saying so. There are currently 1,489 patients with the virus in hospitals in the capital, less than a third of the number at the height of the pandemic in the spring. Of these, 253 are on mechanical ventilators, compared to a high of 1,046 in April.

I only dwell on London because of its importance to the economy, but the same arguments apply to large swathes of England, which may be about to suffer under the Government’s renewed purge.

A nearly empty Leicester Square, in London, Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2020. Haircuts, shopping trips and visits to the pub will be back on the agenda for millions of people when a four-week lockdown in England comes to an end next week

A nearly empty Leicester Square, in London, Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2020. Haircuts, shopping trips and visits to the pub will be back on the agenda for millions of people when a four-week lockdown in England comes to an end next week

Of course, it could be a bluff. The Government may be pretending the capital is heading for Tier Three so that if it is put in Tier Two today there will be widespread relief. But Tier Two is more draconian than it was before the lockdown. London should be in Tier One.

If Mr Johnson insists on taking most of England into Tier Two and Tier Three, he will meet with opposition from dozens of Tory MPs, and may be unable to get his coercive measures through the Commons without the support of Labour. That would be humiliating.

We have a Government in two parts. One part, epitomised by Rishi Sunak yesterday, is looking to the future, aware of the precariousness of our situation, but calmly planning ahead.

The other part, represented by Matt Hancock and a gaggle of scientists ignorant of business, is prepared to strangle the economy in a foolish act of sabotage. We are about to find out whether Boris Johnson is a prudent or a kamikaze Tory.