NHS bosses warn Boris Johnson that easing Covid rules over Christmas could spark third wave

NHS bosses have warned Boris Johnson that relaxing Covid restrictions over Christmas could lead to cases spiraling out of control yet again.

Under the Government’s plans for a more-normal festive season, families are able to form a ‘bubble’ with two other households between December 23 and 27.

And in November, the Prime Minister pledged that several areas under the Government’s harshest set of lockdown rules will be moved to Tier Two before the end of this week.

But NHS executive Chris Hopson has urged Mr Johnson to exercise ‘extreme caution’ before putting any region into a lower tier as any relaxing of rules ‘will trigger a third wave’.

He instead insisted that areas such as London – which sees 211 cases per 10,000 people each week – should be moved up to Tier Three to get numbers under control. He also said Essex, Kent and Lincolnshire have shown worrying figures.

Mr Hopson – the chief executive of NHS Providers which represents trusts across the country – said the current rise in cases is ‘worrying’, especially as it came towards the end of the England’s second nation-wide lockdown.

The country’s case total soared by 21,502 yesterday – a 38 per cent rise on the 15,539 recorded last Saturday.  Saturday’s death toll of 519 is a 30.7 per cent spike on the 397 fatalities seen on the same day last week.

In other coronavirus developments: 

• Councils under England’s toughest coronavirus restrictions are to roll out rapid community testing programmes in a bid to cut Covid-19 transmission rates this winter;
• Doctors administering the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine next week have been told to prioritise elderly patients from ethnic minorities and those who have underlying health conditions if there is high demand for the jab;
• Nadra Ahmed, chairman of the National Care Association, said as many as 40 per cent of care home staff could choose not to take the coronavirus vaccine as it is rolled out over the coming days; 
• Demonstrators took to the streets of London, Edinburgh, Manchester and Brighton for anti-lockdown protests yesterday amid the roll-out of Britain’s mass vaccination scheme;
• Researchers have found that Coronavirus lateral flow tests only pick up 49 per cent of infections because they fail to catch people with low levels of the virus;
• SAGE, Number 10’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, estimated the R number across Britain to be between 0.9 and 1.0, having risen from 0.8 and 1.0 a week ago.

In a letter to the PM, seen by The Times, Mr Hopson wrote: ‘We are now seeing a worrying increase in infection rates across a wide range of areas.

‘Trust leaders are worried that if infection rates remain as high as they are at the moment, relaxing the restrictions will trigger a third wave.’

It comes after scientists urged Britons to ‘rethink’ Christmas gatherings that are ‘not worth the risk’.

High streets were packed with eager Christmas shoppers yesterday as Covid-weary spenders give Britain’s hard-hit businesses a £1.7billion boost.

But top scientists have said families should avoid gatherings that could ‘risk infecting the vulnerable and elderly people we love’. 

Professor Devi Sridhar, the chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, told the Guardian: ‘If people [aren’t] cautious, then we will pay for our Christmas parties with January and February lockdowns.’  

‘With a vaccine just weeks away, why risk infecting vulnerable and elderly people we love?’     

Professor Susan Mitchie, a psychologist at University College London and member of SAGE, added: ‘One has got to respond to the situation as it is, not the situation as we’d like it to be.’ 

And Professor Stephen Reicher, Government advisor in the SAGE sub-group dedicated to ensuring the following of public health measures, warned that a plea by health secretary Matt Hancock to stick to the rules ‘missed the point entirely’. 

‘The danger is when you say people can, you imply that it is safe and therefore they should,’ he said.

Professor Reicher added the Government advice should present the choice to meet with loved ones but warn that it is ‘dangerous’ and should only be done if necessary. 

He said: ‘There may be circumstances where there are other factors that make you think it is worth taking that risk – but people have got to do it knowing and being clear about what the risk is,; 

Linda Bauld, of the University of Edinburgh, has also warned that relaxing Covid restrictions for five days over the Christmas period is a ‘mistake’ that will have ‘consequences’.   

She said: ‘I think people have to think very carefully whether they can see loved ones outside, or do it in a very modest way. I’m also concerned about the travel, people going from high to low-prevalence areas.’

She told BBC Breakfast yesterday: ‘I think it’s going to have consequences. I completely understand why governments are doing that. Behaviourally people are fed up. 

‘If you’re meeting people indoors from other households, there’s poor ventilation, maybe older family members are in those bubbles, unfortunately because the virus hasn’t been eliminated… I think that means the Christmas period is a risk. 

‘From a public health perspective, I have to be perfectly honest, I think this is a mistake.’